Go long before a blowout quarter. Short the company that's been sandbagging guidance for three years. The first perpetual market to trade revenues, cash flows, and EPS surprises.
Earnings season moves more capital than any other event in financial markets. Yet there's been no clean way to take a leveraged, non-custodial, directional position on the surprise — until now.
Analyst consensus is a social construct. Companies that guide conservatively get beaten every quarter. The whisper number diverges from the published estimate. If you've tracked a stock for two quarters, you have an edge on the consensus model.
Traditional options are blunt instruments — you're paying for IV crush, picking strikes, managing Greeks. Here, you're expressing a clean view: will this company beat, miss, or land in line? Settle against the actual EPS delta.
Earnings dates are set weeks in advance. You can size in early, hold through the number, and exit post-settlement. Defined catalyst, defined timeline, defined edge. No ambiguity about when the trade resolves.
Each market settles against the official EPS surprise — reported EPS versus the consensus estimate at market close on the day before earnings. All figures sourced from Bloomberg consensus feeds.
| Market | Company | Earnings Date | Consensus EPS | Settles Against | Open Interest | 24h Volume | Funding |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA-EARN | NVIDIA CorporationSemiconductors · AI Infrastructure | May 28, 2025 · BMO | $0.89 | EPS Surprise % | $812K | +0.04% / 8h | |
| MSFT-EARN | Microsoft CorporationCloud · Enterprise Software | Apr 30, 2025 · AMC | $3.22 | EPS Surprise % | $650K | +0.01% / 8h | |
| META-EARN | Meta Platforms Inc.Social Media · Digital Advertising | Apr 30, 2025 · AMC | $5.28 | Rev + EPS | $720K | -0.02% / 8h | |
| TSLA-EARN | Tesla Inc.EVs · Energy Storage · Autonomy | Jul 22, 2025 · AMC | $0.51 | EPS Surprise % | $1.1M | -0.05% / 8h | |
| AMZN-EARN | Amazon.com Inc.E-commerce · AWS · Logistics | May 1, 2025 · AMC | $1.37 | Rev + EPS | $490K | +0.02% / 8h | |
| JPM-EARN | JPMorgan Chase & Co.Banking · Capital Markets | Jul 15, 2025 · BMO | $4.62 | EPS Surprise % | $320K | +0.01% / 8h |
The gap between the published Street consensus and what sophisticated money actually expects — the whisper number — is persistent and tradeable. Magnitude markets settle against consensus so the spread between your view and the published estimate is your edge.
NVDA has beaten consensus EPS by an average of 22.4% over the past 8 quarters. That's not luck — it's structural sandbagging. If you'd gone long NVDA-EARN before each report, you'd have hit 8 for 8.
Source: Bloomberg Earnings Analysis · Sep 2023 – Apr 2025
A company's stock is a blunt instrument. We're building the next layer: segment markets that let you express a precise view — not on Microsoft, but on Azure. Not on Alphabet, but on Google Cloud. And not on any single hyperscaler, but on the cloud category as an asset class.
The aggregate quarterly cloud revenue of the three hyperscalers, revenue-weighted and settled against Street consensus. When the category beats, you win. The macro cloud thesis in one perpetual — no hardware, no retail, no ad cycle noise.
The hyperscaler story — pure cloud, no retail drag. Settles against quarterly revenue vs consensus.
Settles against the official Azure YoY growth % disclosed in earnings — the most-watched enterprise tech metric.
The fastest-growing hyperscaler. Trade GCP enterprise penetration decoupled from Search and YouTube noise.
Aggregate digital advertising revenue across the four dominant platforms, revenue-weighted. The bellwether for global ad spend — brand budgets, macro sensitivity, and the secular shift from linear TV. One trade for the entire thesis.
The purest proxy for social ad spend. No hardware, no cloud.
The AI disruption thesis. Shows up here if Perplexity and ChatGPT are taking share.
Video ad market share versus TikTok and connected TV. Distinct from Search trends.
Fastest-growing of the four. Commerce-intent ad inventory — structural tailwinds.
Be first when CLOUD-IDX and the segment markets go live. No spam — one email when we launch.
NVIDIA's Blackwell GPU shipments are accelerating into hyperscaler data centers. CSP capex guides are all up. The consensus hasn't fully priced the data center beat. Go long before the May report — the structural demand signal is clear in cloud earnings calls.
Tesla's auto gross margins have been declining for 6 consecutive quarters. FSD revenue recognition is lumpy and the consensus is too optimistic on the robotaxi timeline. Short TSLA-EARN going into Q2 — the analyst community is behind on margin deterioration.
Microsoft's Azure is gaining cloud share while Google Cloud laps a tough beat quarter. Long MSFT on continued Copilot monetization — enterprise software attach is under-modeled by the Street. Short GOOGL against it as the comparison base gets harder post-Q1 blowout.
Banks are benefiting from the extended higher-for-longer cycle. Net interest margins remain elevated and trading desks had a strong Q2 on fixed income vol. The consensus is anchored to pre-cycle normal NII levels. JPMorgan will overshoot — they always do when the curve steepens.
Any EVM-compatible wallet. No KYC. No sign-up. No jurisdiction checks. Connect and you're in the market.
Bridge USDC to Hyperliquid L1. All earnings markets are USDC-margined. One deposit opens every market on the platform.
Browse the earnings calendar. Pick your company, review the consensus estimate, set your direction. Long if you think they'll beat. Short if you think they'll miss.
Set your TP/SL. The market settles post-earnings announcement once the official EPS figure is released. PnL is calculated against the consensus baseline.
Settlement uses Bloomberg consensus EPS snapshot taken at market close T-1 before the report. Actual EPS sourced from the company's official press release. The surprise percentage is the settlement price.
Markets open 30 days before the earnings date. Trading closes 15 minutes after the official report is released. Settlement occurs within 2 hours of report verification. No ambiguity on timing.
Built on Hyperliquid HIP-3. Same orderbook engine, same latency, same non-custodial guarantees. 500K HYPE staked as deployer bond. Your keys, your funds.
Rebates available for
high-volume makers
Hyperliquid L1 settlement
infrastructure
No hidden costs,
no settlement fee
Isolated margin per position.
Risk what you choose.